2009      Apr 2

The theory behind the science of betting on the Grand National will be as it always is; mentally and physically impossible to work out. It’s the one event in the horse racing calendar that due to such an open field (sometimes of 40+ horses) can throw up the most unlikely - and unpredictable - winner come 4.30pm on Saturday.

Of course, pundits, bookies, hardened gamblers et al will try to convince the rest of us mere mortals looking to place that all important Grand National free bet otherwise, citing the choosing of the eventual winner to be something of an exacting art. However to the majority of once-a-year punters (who never normally darken the door of a high street bookmakers from one years end to another) digging into their slacks and rooting around for a handful of change, it’s all to do with sheer luck and good fortune more than anything remotely bordering on - or labouring under the pretence of - science or mathematics.

Largely referred to as the ‘Housewife’s race’; the headline glitz and glamour flagged up across most of the mass media with regards the annual Grand National affords those who would seldom feign interest whatsoever in the form guide of over 30 hopeful jump-primed horses the opportunity to inject a bit of excitement into their Saturday afternoon should they be at work, rest or play. Whilst a painfully elaborate selection process is crucial to those with a daily 9 - 5 penchant for all things sportingly equine, the remainder of society drawn to the event deploy far less measured applicative nous to whittling our choices down to the single one or two hopefuls on which to place our Grand National free bet.

And lest we forget the poor saps who have the perceived hard work done for them by way of the office sweep; which effectively doles out a random name on a piece of paper from the confines of a hat. Or tombola. Or whatever other cylindrical object that’s brought out of mothballs for the late March/early April occasion in office/factory spaces countrywide.

Online bookmakers do suggest alternative ways to make your selection leading up to the big day, and offer all manner of 2009 Grand National free bet ’specials’ in which to tempt the uneducated. Leading online bookmaker, Paddy Power have a number of betting variations on a Grand National theme to harmlessly rope the uninitiated ‘high day and holiday’ punter in with. Based on such almost contrived outcomes as ‘the winning horse to have been trained in Ireland’ or ’such and such a jockey to ride the winner’ - which is pure fantasy guess-timation if it’s deliberated over prior to the jockey actually having been allocated a saddle. All in all though, these more random Grand National free bets considerations make an interesting proposition to those like myself, without a clue.

Elsewhere you could just as easily wager on the probability of all the runners to clear the first jump safely, whilst some may want to put their money - and their faith - on the owner/trainer. That’s to say the odds of a J P McManus-owned winner coming through on Saturday, which at 8-1 with Paddy Power makes for a decent flutter according to insiders.

My very own personal betting odyssey - misguided and ill-fated for the most part - was spawned from a Grand National of yore; whereby thanks to the fickle laws of fate I somehow managed to pick the victorious winner based on a complex methodology harnessing the twin powers of colours and words like so many before and after. Having not the foggiest of idea what I was embarking on - despite benefiting from a gambling-hardened grandfather figure when of youth - I opted for the tried and tested route of determining the potential Grand National winner.

So after choosing a rather eloquent horses name (yet with underlying humorous connotations and effective use of wordplay) and fusing said runner with jockey’s delightful colours I placed my bet with the local bookmaker and settled in front of the box like millions of fellow dreamers nationwide on a random weekend back in the day. A couple of hours later I was 35 quid the richer for my endeavours, and in a blink came to the conclusion that I was indeed a ‘natural’ at this betting lark and therefore I didn’t have to rely on my budding Graphic Design career for future fame and fortune.

Quickly believing that I would soon be able to fund a lavish lifestyle - well, for an impoverished student surviving on a diet of corned beef hash - I set about identifying the coming week’s winners at all manner of exciting sounding locations steeped in glamour. Far away places that conjured up a sense of style and sophistication like Wincanton garnered my attentions like never before as my folly gained momentum.

Sincerely feeling I had hit on a ‘knack’ of picking winners based solely on the cut of a jockey’s jib and/or the more prosaic of a horses name I continued to amount what seemed like a small fortune; planning expensive weekend breaks away, a new(er) car and wardrobe revision. Life was good. Trainers tips, yard/stable statistics and widespread recorded form guides held no relevance to my bid for glory put it that way.

Three weeks, and two-thirds of that term’s student grant later, I realised the error of my ways. Sadly my bank manager wasn’t as understanding as I thought he should be in light of the situation and therein my dalliance with hardcore betting came to a rather abrupt and unceremonious end, complete with tears and tantrums.

For most of us on Saturday though, a fiver down the swanney won’t spell the catalyst for a spiral of ridicule, debt, parental ostracising and social exclusion, and instead amount to little more than standing the price of a round at your local drinking establishment as a means to celebrate/drown your sorrows. And so you’ll pick yourself up and move on; awaiting another 364 days to pass before you relent to the dark side once more. Or the pink top with the royal blue vertically-imprinted sash side as the case may be.

Stella Stevens looks at the pros and cons of Free Bets ahead of the Grand National. For more information please visit http://www.freebettingonline.co.uk

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