The only thing that’s predictable about the outcome of the John Smith’s Grand National is its unpredictability. In fact that’s a dead cert. OK, if you’re talking about picking the out-and-out winner, then by and large at least one of the pre-race favourites of recent years has emerged victorious and piped a rank outsider to the finishing post to save its blushes and those of its rider, trainer, owner and legion of teeth-pulling backers at the eleventh hour. All of which of course adds to the rollercoaster ride that’s part and parcel of the Grand National betting landscape.

But unless you’ve; A) Got a serious wad of the folding stuff at your disposal to make placing a bet on a 4-1 favourite on the day worthwhile, B) Made your prediction two months in advance when the odds for all horses were stratospherically beneficial or C) I’m sure I’ll think of one, then you’d be urged to place what you can afford on a nice, safe each way bet on a mid-priced nag. Not one that’s two (small) jumps away from the glue factory I hasten to add, but an example with a more realistic chance of coming up trumps and crossing the line with its mount. They’re often referred to as the ‘housewives favourite’ and have been dabbed either because the horses’ name/number/colour or the jockey’s name/coloured britches appealed to the once-yearly punter looking for a bit of good, clean Grand National betting fun.

It’s a difficult art to attempt to exact, so instead of concentrating on which horse/jockey combo stands an outside chance on Saturday, the best policy might be to eliminate those that wont be in the running, which isn’t quite as awkward or laborious to master if you decide to follow the tips and rudimentary pointers addressed in the following paragraph.

Like for instance the underlying fact that at least one horse with a starting price of 33-1 or better has found itself in the each way placings seven times in the past nine years if you note Grand National betting annals; the receipt of this knowledge inspiring me to pen this article in the first place. For those of a keen memory, you might recall 1995 saw 40-1 shot Royal Athlete shame the entire field and landing the title.

Again though, from an each way bet perspective, only two horses offering enticing odds of 40-1 from the outset or greater ended up in the top four, whilst only one mount of 33-1 or longer has come through the placings since 2006. overall, and peering into the pantheons of Grand National history, and there have been just the four recorded instances whereby eventual winners of the most fabled race in the national hunt calendar started out at 100-1; the last of which dated back to 1967 and a horse going by the name of Foinavon.

If you’re a firm believer that with age comes the pre-requisitional experience to perform well in the world’s most famous steeplechase, you’ll no doubt nod your head in a sage-like manner when learning that just three eight year old horses have won the Grand National since 1974; those being Corbiere in 1983, Party Politics in 1992 and most recently, Bindaree in 2002. So therefore by adopting this theory you avoid risking your bounty on Battlecry, Nine De Sivola, Flintoff and Nozic this time around.

That said, it doesn’t necessarily pay to bet your bottom dollar on the aged rolling back the years in a blotchy-eyes nostalgia-fest, as just two of the past thirteen Grand National winners have been eleven or older. Meaning those of mature years must have to be made of the right stuff regardless to cut the mustard. Sadly King Harald, Knowhere and Silver Birch aren’t.

Also worth bearing in mind is that you’d have to travel back in time to 1951 if you to witness a mare being crowned a Grand National winner, with Nickel Coin the last to record the honour. Neither Musica Bella nor Pomme Tiepy are likely to bring this run of form to an end according to tipsters.

Horses from the Principality haven’t exactly hit on a winning formula yet either, and can hardly be accused of being in the Irish league when it comes to going the distance on a regular basis. It’s six years since a ride well placed in the Welsh National has finished in the top four at Aintree, in the guise of Gunner Welburn. The 2009 Grand National won’t be the Promised Land for this year’s primary Welsh entrant, Cornish Sett if the pundits have done their research correctly.

Finally, if you’re considering an altogether different wager, you might be interested to discover that thirteen is the average number of finishers in the last decade of Grand Nationals, with history further testifying that on just the one occasion in the last twelve years have over half the field completed the full course.

So there you have some alternative viewpoints to whet your appetite before you decide where you want to flash your cash. Whatever you settle on, the best of British. Or Irish probably if you’re a betting man.

Stella Stevens has been regularly commenting on the Grand National horse racing betting scene for several years.