There are basically three different types of sports handicapping. They are situational handicapping, fundamental handicapping and technical handicapping. For those of you unfamiliar with these three categories, allow me to briefly explain what these three types of sports handicapping are and also provide some examples.
First, let’s take a look at situational handicapping. This type of sports handicapping deals with analyzing scheduling, motivation, letdown scenarios, etc. For example, Team ABC is coming off a huge win over their arch-rival. Now they must travel cross-country to face what is perceived to be an inferior opponent. Team ABC may also have another crucial division opponent on deck. Team ABC would be a good go-against team in this spot due to the travel, the look ahead and the possibility of a letdown from their huge win last time out.
Next, let’s take a look at fundamental handicapping. This involves analyzing how two teams match up against each other. For example, Team ABC is ranked first in the NFL in passing offense. They are facing Team XYZ, who is ranked last in the NFL in pass defense. In this case, Team ABC holds a significant fundamental advantage over Team XYZ. In baseball, another example would be Team ABC is starting a lefty today who owns a 2.30 ERA on the season. Their opponent, Team XYZ, is 2-10 and scoring just 3 runs per game vs. lefty starters. In this example, Team ABC also holds a significant fundamental advantage over Team XYZ.
The last type is technical handicapping, sometimes referred to as trend handicapping. For example, Team ABC is 6-1 against the spread this season when playing at home against teams with a losing record. Their opponent, Team XYZ, is 2-5 ATS this season as a road underdog coming off a home win. In this case, Team ABC has a technical advantage over Team XYZ. One problem with this type of handicapping is you can find plenty of trends supporting each side in a game if you dig deeply enough.
Some handicappers hang their hat on one type of handicapping. Some market themselves as technical experts. Others claim to be situational handicapping experts. I do not agree with that line of thinking. I do not believe you can truly handicap any game by just looking at it from one of the three aspects. I believe it is important to use all three types of handicapping when analyzing any game.
Dwayne Bryant is the owner and handicapper of Bullseye Sports Handicapping Service, online since 2000. Dwayne is among the best handicappers on the sports betting web. Dwayne offers free sports picks, including pro football picks, for those who participate in online sports betting.
Betting preseason football is a lot different than regular season football. The methods used to handicap regular season NFL games do not work most of the time when used to handicap a preseason game. Let’s take a look at what things you should look at when handicapping NFL preseason football.
One thing you must know is the coaches. Some coaches do not care whether their team wins or loses in the preseason. Their objective is to evaluate the talent level all the way to the very last roster spot. Then there are coaches who are trying to instill a winning attitude in their team and they will put an emphasis on winning the preseason games. Obviously, you have a good betting situation if you can find a coach trying to win going against a coach who is more interested in seeing what his third- and fourth-stringers can do.
Also, do not pay too much attention to the starters. In the preseason, the starters will be out of the game well before the outcome is decided. Starters generally only play a quarter or two, if at all. Most coaches view the second-to-last preseason game as the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. In that case, the starters may play up to three quarters. In any case, the starters will usually not decide a preseason game.
Pay attention to what the coaches say. This only holds true in the preseason. Read the team’s local paper or team website to find out what the coach’s plan is for the game. It is important to find out who will be on the field in the fourth quarter when the game will likely be decided.
Make sure you know what the quarterback rotation will be for each team. You could find an advantageous position where a veteran quarterback will be playing in the second half against third- and fourth-string defensive backs. On the other hand, a rookie quarterback playing in the second half is a disadvantage to you. Many times, the rookie quarterback is trying to learn the offense and is also not used to playing against the speed of NFL defenders.
Try to find good situations to back a team. For example, you may come across a game where one coach is planning to play his first and second string for most of the game, while the opposing coach is planning to play mostly third and fourth stringers. Also, look for teams that have started 0-2 straight up and are playing their third preseason game at home, especially when the coach has taken some criticism for the team’s poor start in the local papers. That is usually an excellent spot to back the home team in need of a win, especially when they are facing a team that doesn’t have the same motivation.
NFL preseason football betting can be a very profitable time if you understand you cannot handicap these games the same way you would handicap a regular season game. Use the advice above as a set of guidelines for your preseason football betting and you should see an increase in your bankroll before the regular season kicks off.
Dwayne Bryant is the owner and handicapper of Bullseye Sports Handicapping Service. Dwayne is among the best sports handicappers on the internet since 2000. Dwayne offers free sports picks, including NFL game picks, for those who participate in sports betting online.
It is common knowledge that the betting public loves playing favorites. It seems the public has a short-sighted mentality that says they are betting on the better team when they lay points with the “chalk.” But is that really the right way to go? I say “no” and I will tell you why.
First, let’s look at this from a strictly law-of-averages perspective. If you bet the favorite, three things can happen and two are not good. The favorite could lose the game straight up or the favorite could win the game, but not by more points than you had to give up. The only way you win is if your favorite wins the game by more points than you had to give up. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will lose your wager.
If you back the underdog, three things can happen and two of those things are in your favor. The underdog could win the game straight up or they could lose the game, but by fewer points than you are receiving. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will win your wager.
Two scenarios are common in the football betting world. First, a favorite comes out and exerts their will on their opponent, getting out to a huge lead. But in the NFL, there are no pollsters to impress, so what is the favorite’s motivation to continue running up the score? The players do not care about the point spread. So many times, they “let off the gas” and coast to victory. Have you ever lost a bet by the dreaded “backdoor cover?”
The second scenario sees the favorite come out flat, with a lack of motivation against what they perceive to be an inferior opponent. Maybe the favorite is coming off a huge win against a division rival and has another rival on deck. The underdog (players are almost always motivated in the dog role) comes out firing and takes the early lead. Many times, the favorite will storm back and escape with the win, but not the cover.
By no means am I saying you should only bet underdogs, but it would seem to be a good idea to back an underdog in the right situation as opposed to betting a favorite just because they appear to be the better team. Remember, the better team does not always win and sometimes the team that appears to be the better team really is not.
Records can be deceiving. For example, Team ABC might be 3-0, but they played three teams that haven’t won a game. Team XYZ might be 0-3, but they played three teams that haven’t lost a game. Don’t get caught up in records.
Statistics can also be deceiving. For example, Team ABC may be scoring 30 points per game, but they played against defenses that are allowing 30 points per game. Team XYZ may be scoring only 20 points per game, but they played against tougher defenses that are allowing only 20 points per game. Careful analysis is always required. Do not take statistics at face value.
Many times the stats are skewed or they are not as they would appear to be. For example, Team ABC allowed 400 passing yards last week. But what the stat sheet does not show is that half of those yards were allowed in garbage team after the team was up by 28 in the fourth quarter. Again, thorough analysis is required.
In summary, you should not bet all favorites or all underdogs. True professional bettors wager on primarily underdogs because, as I mentioned earlier, in that scenario, two out of the three scenarios work in your favor. So while betting all underdogs is not the road to betting riches, it is a good idea to first look at taking the points.
Dwayne Bryant owns Bullseye Sports. He has been handicapping successfully for over 20 years. Dwayne provides free handicapper picks, including NCAA football expert picks. Dwayne’s free NFL football picks are some of the most sought-after picks among sports bettors worldwide.
Being successful in sports wagering is more complicated than just being able to pick more winners than losers. There are certain guidelines that one should follow to increase one’s chances of sports betting success over the long term. Let’s take a look at these sports betting principles.
Do not bet more than you can afford to lose. Sports wagering can be an enjoyable thing if done responsibly. Betting money needed to pay bills or run your household is a quick way to find yourself in divorce court and/or out on the street. Only bookies, psychiatrists and bankruptcy attorneys benefit when you bet over your head and lose.
You must manage your sports betting bankroll properly. Don’t chase your losses. Don’t try to get even on the last game of the day or the last day of the week. And definitely do not bet a game just because it’s on television. Remember that it’s impossible to make every day a winning one, but it is very possible to make every day a losing one if you’re not disciplined.
Watch out for “sure things.” The expression, “if it looks too good to be true, it probably is” comes to mind. If you see a line that looks way off, it may not be a bad idea to bet on the team the book seems to be leaning towards. After all, the major sportsbooks are very good at setting solid lines.
Don’t let injuries dictate your wager. The more starters on a team, the less one injury will have an effect on the team. Football has more than 20 starters, so one injury shouldn’t have a major impact on the game. The one obvious exception is if the starting quarterback gets hurt on a pass-happy team and the backup has no experience or a poor performance history. Injuries are much more important in basketball, where there are only five starters and usually only about eight players see significant playing time. If a book has a line on a game in which a key player is injured, keep in mind the book has factored that injury into the line.
Do not only consider a team’s last performance when handicapping a game. In football, a team that lost badly last week is very likely to practice harder and may face a team this week that is overconfident. Recent form is important, but you should always consider at least the last few games.
Be careful when using certain trends as a basis for your plays. For example, Team XYZ has lost 10 straight games on Friday. Do you honestly think that team is thinking, “Uh-oh. It’s Friday, so we’re probably going to lose”? On the other hand, if a team is 0-5 this season against teams with a winning record and they’re playing a team with a winning record, then that is a good indicator of the team’s true strength and should be taken into consideration.
If you can follow these sports betting guidelines, your wagering experience should be an enjoyable one.
Dwayne Bryant owns Bullseye Sports. He has been handicapping successfully for over 20 years. Dwayne provides sports betting picks and his college football predictions are wildly popular in the sports betting community. Dwayne is also known for his amazing win percentage with his NFL expert picks.
A bettor must win 52.4 percent of his wagers to break even. Some bettors who win more than 52.4 percent of their bets still end up losing money. Why? The answer is because they do not use proper money management. Money management is just as important as picking winners. Here are some simple (yet sometimes difficult to follow) tips on proper money management.
My first piece of advice is to have money set aside for sports betting. This should be an amount you can afford to lose. It should not be money you need to pay your mortgage, car payment, utility bills or any other money you need to comfortably run your household.
My second piece of advice is you should never wager more than five percent of your bankroll. There are going to be losing streaks, which are unavoidable. It’s the law of averages and it happens to everyone. By keeping your bet percentage low, you are keeping yourself in the game until your luck turns around.
My third piece of advice is you should wager the same amount on each game. At most, have two levels of plays. Maybe you decide to bet two percent on regular plays and four percent on what you feel are really strong picks. But whatever you do, stick with the percentages you choose.
That brings me to my fourth piece of advice, which is do not chase your losses. That means if you lose four percent on today’s game, don’t bet six percent on tonight’s game. This is the quickest way to bankrupt yourself and the bookies are counting on you to fall into this trap.
My last piece of money management advice as it pertains to sports betting is you should never drastically increase your bet amounts. For example, you went 3-0 today. You bet $100 on each game, so you’re up $300 going into tomorrow. Tomorrow rolls around and you pick three more games, but this time you bet $200 on each game. You end up going 0-3 today. Because you doubled your wagers, you lost $660 today, which makes your two-day total minus $360. This also ties into betting the same amount on each game, but the temptation to double-up is very strong when you’re hot.
Sports betting is not just about picking more winners than losers. Money management is extremely important if you want to steadily profit in this arena. Your chances of success are much greater if you can follow the aforementioned money management tips.
Dwayne Bryant owns Bullseye Sports. He has been handicapping successfully for over 20 years. Dwayne provides free handicapping picks on his website. Dwayne has proven to be an expert among college football handicappers. His free NFL picks have also made his clients a ton of money over the years.