Every day, we make decisions based on what we think may, or most likely will, happen. Many of these decisions seem to be based more on wishful thinking than on logic - sure, you’ll run off that extra banana split! No, of course you won’t get a parking ticket in the course of a five-minute stop! But nowhere can we see more of these hopeful, if not necessarily logical, guesses about the future than in gambling and betting.
From the stock market to the office betting pool, from the political futures market to the casino, from the street-corner game of three-card monte to a familial round of poker, we all act as if we believe that winning is always a possibility. But what so many of us don’t know is that mathematics offers an entire body of research, speculation and solid fact dedicated to helping us predict the future.
With probability, as this field of mathematical inquiry is called, we can make more educated guesses as to the likeliest outcome of a given event. (Probability’s applicability to games of chance is no accident, either - mathematicians began studying it in seventeenth-century France partly in order to understand how such games worked, since they were an important pastime among the very aristocratic patrons who performed or funded math research and other intellectual pursuits.)
The simplest way to figure probability is as a fraction. Let’s say someone dares you to reach into a box filled with four real dollar bills and five fakes. In this case, the likelihood of getting a dollar bill on your first grab is 4/9 - four out of nine (the ratio of real dollar bills to the total number of items in the box). You could also express this probability as a percentage - just divide 4 by 5. You get around forty-four percent - not terrible. Why not take the risk, especially since you’re not losing anything?
Now let’s make the problem a little harder - figuring the outcome of a coin toss. Being able to “call” heads or tails may not seem like a very important skill in the scheme of things, but it never hurts’ and you never know.
Viewers of the popular recent movie No Country For Old Men will recall the frightening scene in which bad guy/hitman Anton Chigurh, played brilliantly by Javier Bardem, stalks into a remote Texas gas station and offers to let the proprietor live - if he “calls” a coin toss correctly. “What’s the most you’ve ever lost on a coin toss?” Chigurh says, mocking the terrified man. In other words - sometimes it pays to know a little probability!
So let’s say you’ve been asked to call a coin toss - hopefully not by a madman with a gun. If it’s a single coin toss, the result is pretty simple to figure: you can either call heads or tails, and the probability that the coin will agree with you is, basically, 1/2, with two being the number of possible results (heads, tails). That yields a probability, of course, of fifty percent. Not bad. Might as well call it, friend-o.
Your chances at the roulette wheel, however, aren’t quite so good. And the reason, again, has to do with probability. On a roulette wheel, you have 38 slots: two green, 18 red, and 18 black. Let’s say you bet simply on “red” - a hedged bet, with a correspondingly lower payout. Your chances of winning are 18 out of 38. That yields a not-too-terrible forty-seven percent chance.
If you play for the real money - placing your bet on, say, red-ten - your chances plummet to 1 in 38, or a little less than three percent. Suddenly we can see how casino owners manage to afford to stay in business. These are, of course, incredibly simple applications of - and examples of - probability.
Scientists use probability to study everything from political events (the likelihoods of assassination and coup attempts), to the possibility of Earth-like planets existing at various points in the galaxy. Insurance agencies use probability in order to anticipate risk; economists and investors use it to make guesses about stock performance and other variables.
Mathematicians have even used probability to study the effect of peoples’ assumptions about the probability of certain events - for example, how does cynicism about the market contribute to economic downturn? How do fears of further Middle East conflict affect oil prices? Probability may be as simple as a coin toss - but it’s as complicated as existence.
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Fans of Thoroughbred horse racing may find themselves wondering from time to time: How exactly do they decide what a horse’s handicap will be?
An aspect of many competitive (and wager-worthy) sports and games besides horse racing - chess, Go, running events, yacht racing, polo, bowling and, infamously, golf - handicapping allows competitors at differing level of experience to clash without the game dissolving into predictability. With handicapping, raw talent can compete evenly with greater experience, yielding maximum spectator interest. After all, what’s more interesting than watching a fiery rookie test herself against a seasoned veteran?
Of course, “handicapping” can mean two different things - in horse racing as in most other sports. It can mean adding or subtracting a particular burden to a particular horse in order to even up the playing field; it can also mean guessing in advance as race’s outcome, for the benefit of those who’d like to bet on a horse’s performance. In the case of horse racing, one major form of the first kind of handicapping is known as the impost. This term means that each horse must carry a certain amount of weight; since jockeys, of course, vary in size (though most tend toward the lighter end of the scale), weights are added to the horse to even things up. Jockeys carry these lead weights in saddle pads during the race. Weights may also be assigned on the basis of the horse’s age - a variation introduced by Admiral Rouse of the Jockey Club in 1855. The amount of weight assigned to a horse by the racing secretary may also depend on factors such as the horse’s previous race performances and its familiarity with a particular race distance.
Then there’s handicapping in the second sense - predicting who will reach the finish line when, for the sake of spectator wagers - and this sense of the term has been with us since the word was coined in the 1600s: we get the word handicap from a seventeenth-century version of lottery, in which players would place their bets in a cap, hence hand-in-cap. Horse handicapping in this sense is a subtle art, but the first thing you need is a subscription to the Daily Racing Form, the horsetrack junkie’s Bible. This venerable broadsheet publication, founded near Chicago by Frank Brunell in 1894, keeps racing fans updated on each horse’s past performance. Trying to handicap a horse without it is like riding public transit in Tokyo, for the first time, without a schedule, without knowing Japanese.
In addition to the Daily Racing Form (other sources for the same information may include the Equibase and Brisnet databases), handicapping depends on close observation of the horses themselves. How are the horses behaving in the paddock or during the post parade? Is he throwing a temper tantrum? Is she favoring one leg over another? Is a horse’s tail switching this morning (bad), or are the ears in synch with each other, laying forward or backward (good)?
And finally, in a sort of postmodern feedback loop, the handicapper must monitor not only the horse but the way the horse is being perceived by the betting public. As odds fall or rise, reflecting spectator confidence in the horse (or lack thereof), the handicapper’s estimation of the horse may change as well (which estimation, in previous races, may also have made its influence felt in the very betting that the handicapper now responds to).
But that’s not all: Handicappers also look at a horse’s speed (measured via something called a Beyer number, which averages past performances while also accounting for differences in race conditions, track speed, and other circumstances), its pace (frontrunner? kick-from-behinder?), its “form” (is the horse rested? out of practice?), post position (is the horse placed near the race track’s inside?), and finally the race-day incidentals that will likely affect every horse - weather, track condition, etc.
Handicapping, in both senses, gives the world of Thoroughbred racing a bit of its drama, a touch of the unpredictable. The agony of a lost bet, the ecstasy of a successful one - both are due, in part, to the mentally challenging work of race handicapping.
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Located in three distinct regions of downtown Detroit, as well as across the Detroit River in Windsor, casinos are creating a bit of Vegas glam to the cityscape. Open everyday around the clock, Detroit casinos feature well-appointed surroundings, big-name entertainment, and of course, exciting gaming. More and more visitors to Detroit are combining visits to the theater, restaurants, and shopping with a bit of Lady Luck.
Rows of limousines lining the street are a strong clue that you’ve arrived at the Greektown Casino. Situated in the corner of Greektown historic district, the Greektown Casino has created a vibrant gaming and entertainment hub for everyone - from fanny-pack grannies to hip, young adults.
Named “Best Casino” in The Detroit News, the Greektown Casino has upped the ante with a newly-expanded casino-hotel in 2008. With 100,000 square feet of gaming space and a stunning 30-story hotel, the casino will reveal its expanded gaming area in September 2008, followed by the opening of its hotel and events center in October.
With an emphasis on fun, Greektown Casino’s gaming offerings include slots, video poker machines, and the region’s largest poker room. Table games such as Blackjack, Pai Gow Poker, Three-Card Poker, and Caribbean Stud are staffed with friendly dealers whose main job is to make sure you have fun.
After trying your luck at the award-wining casino, prepare for a little palette temptation. Greektown Casino offers guests 4-star dining at the Alley Grille Steakhouse where USDA prime steaks and chops grilled to perfection are favorite menu choices. Or, try the best burger in town at the Grapevine Cafe where home-style cooking is served up in extra large portions. At the Apollo Lounge, guests enjoy the best in live local talent, including the blues and karaoke.
Greektown Casino’s ideal location puts it just steps and minutes from Comerica Park, Ford Field, and the theater district, as well as the shops and eateries of Greektown itself.
Located in a former Wonderbread factory, MotorCity Casino embraces its Detroit locale with an auto theme on steroids. Belly up to the bar in the Chromatics or Headlights lounge, or grab a bite to eat in the Pit Stop restaurant - the Detroit casino puts a rev in your motor for some casino fun.
Located at the Grand River and the Lodge Freeway, MotorCity Casino features 100,000 square feet of gaming space and a new luxurious hotel, which opened in fall of 2007. The property features a fusion of automotive design, cutting-edge technology, and 400 luxurious rooms.
In the casino, gamers enjoy classic reel games, as well as video poker and video slots. For fast action, choose from one of over 70 table games that include Blackjack, Roulette and Craps. The smoke-free Poker Room features 12 tables of games, including Texas Hold ‘em and Seven Card Stud.
Dining at MotorCity is as exciting as the gaming. Enjoy Iridescence, an elegant, rooftop 4-star experience, or the best in American and international cuisine at the Classics Buffet. For the best in home style barbecue, head to MotorCity Pit Stop. Partygoers in the group will enjoy the Overdrive Lounge or Radio Bar for the best in Detroit entertainment.
Near all major sporting and entertainment venues and just 20 minutes from Detroit Metro Airport, the MGM Casino and Hotel features a 17-story, five-star 400-room hotel with a full-service spa, pool and fitness facilities. The 100,000-square-feet of gaming area offers more than 90 game tables and more than 4,000 of the latest slots and video poker.
Complementing the experience are entertainment venues along with restaurants including one designed by renowned chef Wolfgang Puck. From martinis around the intimate fire pit at Ignite to unique twists on steakhouse favorites at Bourbon Steak, guests dine and drink in ultimate luxury. Afterward, dance to the rhythms of live DJs in the hottest lounges or catch big-name acts in the stunning Grand Ballroom. Then escape to your quiet place for rejuvenation in the MGM Grand Hotel.
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