It is an old story at the race track: a newcomer to the horse races looks at the jockeys’ silks and bets on the prettiest one. An ability to evaluate a horse’s chances by its physical appearance does offer a horse bettor an advantage, but the predictive value of the jockeys’ silks is easily discounted. If the silks mattered, then losing owners would just change their colors in order to change their fortunes.

The suspicion here is that newcomers to horse race handicapping find themselves faced with too much information and react by finding a simple, silly solution. Newcomers want and should have a simple, reliable way to digest the information in the racing form. Speed Points fits the standard of simple and reliable.

To begin, assign each horse one point. Then look at the five most recent races in the past performances. Three of those races will get rated. Horses earn speed points depending upon their position and beaten lengths at the first call of their races.

THE RULES FOR SPRINTS
Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within two lengths of the leader at the first call. Award zero points for any other sprint performance. Award zero points for any route performance, unless the horse was within one length of the leader at the first call, in which case do not rate that race.

Seven Furlongs Exception
Only award the one point for position if the horse led the race at the first call.

THE RULES FOR ROUTES
Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within three lengths of the leader at the first call. Award zero points for any other route performance.

Sprints Exception
Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within five lengths of the leader at the first call.

At this point each horse will have earned a rating between one and seven Speed Points.

BONUS POINT
Horses having seven speed points earn a bonus point if they have been within a neck of the leader in each of their rated races.

LOSS OF ORIGINAL POINT
Horses having one point lose that point if they failed to beat half the field at the first call in each of their rated races.

THE METHOD
Handicappers should consider each horse having five or more speed points and two points higher than any other horse. These horses have a definite early-speed advantage and many of them will lead wire to wire. Alternatively, handicappers can add the speed points for all the horses in the race and then divide that sum into the points for the highest rated horse. Consider any horse having thirty percent or more of the race’s speed points.

Novice horse race handicappers will quickly find new and unique ways to use Speed Points. This writer has found them very effective and useful for evaluating track bias, but that subject is another article altogether.

Rich Dudka has played the ponies since the early 1980s and now shares his insights and advice about horse race handicapping at Uncle Clyde and Good Horse Racing.

A big part of the fun of going to the horse races is picking the winners. The exhilaration of rooting for the horse that wins combined with the ego boost of seeing how much a winning ticket is worth works well to put steam in a bettor’s stride. If the payout to the winning bettors turns out to be a large sum of money, then that is even better. Longtime horse race handicappers continually search for ways to find winning longshots, because even though the favorite wins one-third of the time, betting on them takes very little skill and they do not pay well when they do win. If picking longshots sounds appealing, try looking for these opportunities.

The Hidden Entry
Usually when a trainer enters more than one horse in a race, the race track makes them one betting interest, known as coupling. That means that a bet on the number 1 is actually a bet on the 1 and the 1a. That situation often lowers the odds because bettors get two chances to win for the price of one. Sometimes, though, trainers are allowed to enter more than one horse in a race without the race track coupling them in the betting. This is called a hidden entry, and it provides handicappers looking for a longshot an opportunity. Quite often the higher odds horse of a hidden entry actually ends up the winner. Savvy handicappers watch for this situation and make sure to bet the higher odds horse, especially in Maisen Special Weight and Stakes races.

The Short Field Longshot
Sometimes a race fails to attract very many entries and ends up with only five horses. In this case the sharp bettors look to back the longest shot on the board because it only has to beat four other horses or even fewer if the field is shorter. Stay away from this strategy if the race has six or more entries. This play works best with Stakes races.

Trainer Moves
Horse racing publications provide more than just the horses’ performances in past races. They also provide the trainers’ performance statistics for the moves they are making in the upcoming race. If the horse is running on turf for the first time, or if it is wearing blinkers for the first time, or any other of about twenty trainer angles are apparent, then the publication provides information about how those moves have worked for the trainer in the past. Longtime handicappers look for a high winning percentage (over thirty works well) combined with a long history of the trainer making the move.

Picking winners is fun, but picking winning longshots is even more fun. If your day at the races has become a losing streak, try one of the above plays and your luck just might change.

Rich Dudka has played the ponies for over twenty-five years and now provides his insights at UncleClyde.com and GoodHorseRacing.com.